Market Strain Gauge
Individual stocks have a scorecard. This is the one for the whole market — two long-run valuation measures, each shown against its own history, so you can see how today compares with 1999, 2007 and every month in between.
Consensus status
EXTREMEThe label is a fixed rule, not a forecast: under 0.9× reads Below normal, 1.25× Normal, 1.75× Elevated, 2.25× High, and above that Extreme. Stretched valuations say nothing about when anything happens — markets have stayed expensive for years. Informational only; not investment advice.
40 years of valuations vs. their baselines
CAPE through Oct 2026 · Buffett Indicator through Apr 2026 (quarterly, carried forward)
| Reference point | When | CAPE | Buffett |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dot-com peak | Dec 1999 | 44.2 | 155% |
| 22007 peak | Oct 2007 | 27.3 | 115% |
| 32009 low | Mar 2009 | 13.3 | 69% |
| 4Today | Oct 2026 | 40.7 | 255% |
Reading the warning signs
- The valuation gap. CAPE sits at 40.71 against a long-run average of 17.8 across 1,750 months of history.
- The dot-com ceiling. CAPE has been higher in only 19 of 1,750 months on record — every one of them in 1999 and 2000 and 2026, peaking at 44.2 in Dec 1999.
- The Buffett Indicator. Total US corporate equity is worth 255% of GDP, against a post-war average of 87%. Its record is 255% in Apr 2026.
The Buffett Indicator here uses the Federal Reserve's own Z.1 corporate-equities level over GDP — the original definition. Versions built on the Wilshire 5000 (as quoted by some sites) read materially higher; Wilshire's series is no longer published on FRED. Sources: Shiller CAPE (Robert J. Shiller, Yale), Corporate equities, Federal Reserve Z.1 via FRED, US GDP via FRED.
This page is free. The rest of StockDash isn't.
The gauge above tells you what the whole market is doing. The paid side is for deciding what to do about it — a live watchlist across US and Canadian markets, a fundamentals scorecard on any stock, a DCF model you drive yourself, dark pool activity, TMX anonymous and block volume, and a portfolio tracker that measures you against the index rather than against your own optimism.
No performance claims, no signals, no tips. It is a research tool.